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In part, it may be brinkmanship aimed at increasing Russian influence in the region at the expense of the West, said Steven Pifer, ’76, a fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a former ambassador to Ukraine.

“The Kremlin undoubtedly hopes that just the threat of a new attack on Ukraine will prompt Kyiv [the Ukrainian capital city] and the West to make concessions,” he told the Stanford News Service. “Mr. Putin also wants NATO to rethink policies, such as enlargement and the deployment of relatively small battlegroups on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states.”

“A Ukraine that charts its own course, consolidates its democracy and enacts reforms that realize the full potential of its economy poses a nightmare for the Kremlin,” Pifer said.”

That Ukraine would cause Russians to ask why they cannot have the same political voice as Ukrainian citizens—and perhaps even challenge Mr. Putin’s authoritarianism.”

But Putin’s biggest concern may lie with an audience closer to home—the Russian people.